Categories: uncategorized
Date: 06 June 2007 13:40:36
Last week we had the Mighty George telling the world how much the US has done to tackle climate change and how committed his Presidency is to working harder to achieve its aims. He has promised a 20% cut in petrol consumption within 10 years.
Today US government "spokespersons" have said that they will not agree a deal on "Son of Kyoto" during this week's G8 summit - didn't they come second in Pop Idol or something? Why? bevause this is not the right forum for making these commitments. It is the right forum for promising debt relief and HIV/Aids projects though - even if they don't carry out those promises.
I've just seen, on the BBC website, that OPEC are threatening to increase the cost of oil to much higher levels than they are now. Why? because we are insisting on changing to biofuels, or their alternatives. Therefore OPEC will not be selling as much oil as they do now. They won't be able to build big cities or island resorts by the sea and invest in their production infrastructure.
Ordinarily my heart would bleed for such people. After all the locals are not the wealthiest of people, even with their oil. The money always seems to get diverted elsewhere; usually Switzerland or the Cayman Islands. Some countries, such as Dubai, are already beginning to imagine life without oil and changing their economies accordingly. I suppose many of them could export sand....
Others have no idea what they'll do next. They haven't come to terms with the oil that they're already selling and are having trouble keeping a lid on domestic discontent. As oil revenues and demand falls these pressures will increase. Many of these countries should be looking at improving their countries now and investing in new industries and technologies. If they don't secure their place on the next wave of technology then they'll slip backwards and forever play catch up.
It doesn't matter how large the reserves are for your commodities; if people find alternative choices then you'll find that you are sitting on a valueless lake of oil. Just see the decline in the UK coal industry as an example. We have some of largest reserves in the world but can't sell it as cheap as other nations, plus demand has moved on to gas or oil.
OPEC may think that they have the power of oil now but that'll soon disappear. The more expensive it gets the better, and more cost effective, the alternatives are from renewables.