Greasy Polls

Categories: uncategorized

Date: 03 May 2005 19:35:56

'Wildly inaccurate and designed to stir up panic amongst politicians and the general population.'

What is this quote about? Yes, it does sound like the dodgy intelligence dossier before the Iraq war. But in fact the quote refers to the equally misleading plague that occurs at election times: Opinion Polls.

The question I always want to ask when I see an opinion poll is: who do they ask? I've never been asked. I don't know anyone who has been (please write in if you have). So, much like WMD in Iraq, with no evidence to the contrary, I don't believe in them.

OK, so the poll results exist. But I bet it's just a bloke sat with his feet on his desk in Mori making some decisions about how different issues may be going down with the voters. I can see him there with his red, blue yellow and grey bar charts listening to the news. 'Bit of a crappy interview there Charlie, you're down a point pal.' (Pushes button on laptop, yellow bar gets slightly smaller.) 'Iraq dominates the news for the fourth day in a row - that'll be two points to the Lib Dems and one each off of Labour and Tories.' (Few more button pushes, a few small changes in the coloured bars) 'Oliver Letwin and Gordon Brown appear on TV within a few seconds of each other (evil cackle) - five points off Tories and straight to Labour.'

But you know the problem with this? It affects the way we vote. If I thought the parties were neck and neck, I wouldn't risk a non-Labour vote. The polls show, on the face of it, a fairly comfy Labour win though, so I might. Then I remember 1992.

The shiver goes through my spine and the eyes narrow. The election where pollsters said Labour were 5 points ahead. Where John Major got a majority. That's the same margin as this time. Fear and dread overcome me, and I sneak cowardly into Tone's safe arms once more. I know he beats me up but I'm better off with him than Calamatous Force (who increasingly resembles Darth Vader. It wouldn't surprise me if we get an exchange between him and some shining up-and-coming left of centre politician soon, where Howard goes 'No, Lembit. I am your father' to screams of horror and wielding of protective rosettes).

So I'm one of the 34% of the population who hasn't yet made their minds up. I'm floating. Where will I land?